BLOG · CITED AI IN PRODUCTION
Notes on putting agents to work.
How investment teams move AI from demo to desk: process maps, agreed definitions, source trails, audit logs — and the portfolio graph underneath it all. Plus the Bayesian Investor primer for CIOs and selected work samples.
01 GRAFOLIO IN PRODUCTION
From pilot to desk.
Three essays on why desk agents stall — and the patterns that get them into production on real documents and Excel models.
Why Investment-Desk AI Agents Stall in Pilot
Process maps, agreed definitions, source trails and audit logs decide whether a pilot reaches production — not the model.
Excel Stays the System of Record
Agents should drive the approved workbook — not replace its math with AI arithmetic.
Portfolio Graph, Not Folder Search
RAG over a data room finds documents. A portfolio needs entities and relationships you can traverse and cite.
02 THE BAYESIAN INVESTOR
A plain-language primer for the CIO.
How a team learns to think, model, and decide under uncertainty — one analogy at a time. No formulas, no Greek letters, no code. Start at the series index, then phases 1–4 and five desk use cases.
Series Index: the Roadmap in One Page
The four-phase learning plan, the one-sentence takeaway, and a suggested path forward.
The One Idea Behind Everything
Start with a belief. Update it as evidence arrives. Always know how sure you are.
Phase 1 — Foundations
Probability as belief, updating a prior with evidence, Python as a what-if calculator.
Phase 2 — Core Modeling
Models, parameters, sampling, hierarchical models, regression — separating skill from market exposure.
Phase 3 — Dynamic Tracking
Kalman and particle filters for hidden, moving targets: the committee vs. the GPS.
Phase 4 — Applied Integration
Sensor fusion, Black-Litterman, regime-switching networks: the full decision stack.
Portfolio Construction
Who really moves with whom: hierarchical models for allocation under uncertainty.
IPO Pricing & Feature Selection
Which factors actually matter: disciplined variable selection for pricing.
Cross-Asset Stress Testing
When one domino falls: stress tests with private-asset look-through.
Asset Allocation: the Operating System
Allocation as the system that turns beliefs and constraints into positions.
Performance & Risk Attribution
The scorekeeper: Bayesian attribution that separates skill from luck.
03 SYSTEMATIC & ARTIFACTS
Models and work samples.
Factor Rotation — Regime-Aware Systematic Portfolio
Two independent regime signals dynamically allocating across 9 uncorrelated factor ETFs: 2.6× SPY's Sharpe at under a third of its drawdown.
Dashboard Samples & Artifacts
Screenshots from performance measurement, agent-based simulation, and multifamily operations work.